ORKNEY'S ENERGY FUTURE
RESULTS
SCENARIO COMPARISONS
FINANCIAL IMPACT
To compare the potential economic impact of each scenario, the predicted cost benefit to the local community based on the proposed wind farms was calculated. The total capital cost of implementing decarbonisation technologies was not considered here as it is the same for all scenarios.
Two of the ‘approved’ wind farms (Hesta Head and Costa Head) are to be developed by Hoolan Energy, which has offered up to 10% shared community ownership of the projects [3]. Based on the agreed strike price of £39.65/MWh [4] and a calculated energy generation of ~191 GWh/year using the self-built tool, these wind farms could generate between £721,000 and £823,000 per year for the local community. To put this into perspective, this would equate to approximately £75 per household in Orkney. However, in Scenarios 2a and 2b, this generation would have to be curtailed by 4% and 39% respectively, which was taken into account when calculating the revenue in these scenarios.
In addition to this, Hoolan Energy has offered to create a community benefit fund, with £5,000 per MW of wind capacity installed being added each year. A community fuel poverty fund will also be created, with £1,000 being added each year per MW installed. Based on 34.4 MW of installed capacity of Hesta Head and Costa Head wind farms, this results in a total of £206,000 being added to these community funds each year.
Three of the ‘proposed’ wind farms, for which the planning applications have been submitted, are community projects [5]. The expected energy generation from these sites was calculated to be ~416 GWh/year, again using the self-built tool. Assuming the same strike price of £39.65/MWh as Hesta Head and Costa Head, this would create annual revenue between £14.7m and £17.3m - approximately £1,600 per household. Again, the revenue would be lower in Scenarios 2a and 2b when wind turbines are curtailed.
Based on this, the revenue generated for the community in each scenario was calculated (Figure 1). Scenarios 0 and 1 were not included because there are no new wind farms and therefore no revenue.
Figure 1: Revenue generated from community-owned wind farms in each generation scenario.
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
Potential social and environmental impacts of all scenarios were considered. The main points taken into account in this assessment were:
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Job creation
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Wasted electricity and potential curtailment
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Visual impact of wind farms
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Public opinion on the new transmission cable and new wind farms
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Disturbance to wildlife created by construction of new transmission cable and/or wind farms
New jobs that are created directly by the construction of wind farms tend to only be temporary positions. However, there may be new positions created indirectly through the reinvestment of revenue from these wind farms [6].
As described in the Wasted Electricity section, curtailment is experienced in Scenarios 0, 2a and 2b due to constraints on exporting electricity. This leads to frustration amongst the local community and reduced revenue from the Feed-in-Tariff for those wind farms for which this is applicable. However, this under-utilised electricity generation may create a drive for a hydrogen economy, a concept which is already being considered in Orkney [7].
A common concern related to the building of new wind farms is the potential visual impact they may have. Orkney has four UNESCO World Heritage Sites [8] and several internationally protected Natura 2000 sites [9]. Therefore, it is of even greater importance that the natural landscape is not degraded by wind turbines.
Many Orkney residents are opposed to the building of new wind farms and have made their opinions heard both at public consultations and in demonstrations outside local authority buildings [10]. In addition, Ofgem has highlighted that some members of the public have doubts concerning the socioeconomic benefits of the new transmission cable [11]. However, a recent poll found that only 11% of rural Scots oppose new onshore wind farms [12].
Orkney is home to 13 RSPB Nature Reserves [9], signalling that it is likely that birdlife is rich and that some species will be impacted by the construction of the new wind farms. Furthermore, some sections of the proposed new cable route cross through areas that are natural habitat to otters and breeding birds so it is possible that these species could be affected [13].
To draw a comparison between different scenarios, a scoring system was devised in which each positive impact added a point, each negative impact subtracted a point and if an impact was doubled from one scenario to another, i.e. visual impact of 8 wind farms compared to 4, then two points were added or subtracted (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Calculated social and environmental impact score for each generation scenario.
OVERALL COMPARISON
To avoid the current issue of wind turbine curtailment in Orkney, Scenarios 2a and 2b should be avoided as these will lead to some of the potential electricity generation being wasted. Scenario 1 has no curtailment but does have a negative environmental and social impact, mainly because the surplus electricity may not be sufficient to cover further decarbonisation.
This leaves Scenarios 3a and 3b; one has a more positive social and environmental impact and the other, a greater financial impact. However, a condition of the new transmission cable is that 135 MW of new wind capacity must be installed, meaning that Scenario 3b is the most likely scenario to be realised.
REFERENCES
[1] Orkney Islands Council, “The Orkney Hydrogen Economic Strategy,” Seafuel, 2019.
[2] Scottish Government, “Total final energy consumption by sector,” [Online]. Available: https://scotland.shinyapps.io/Energy/?Section=WholeSystem&Chart=EnConsumption. [Accessed 13 April 2021].
[3] Hoolan Energy, “Costa Head Wind Farm Limited - Appeal Statement,” 2018.
[4] Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, “Contracts for Difference (CfD) Allocation Round 3: Results,” 2019. [Online]. Available: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/915678/cfd-ar3-results-corrected-111019.pdf. [Accessed 12 April 2021].
[5] Planning decision: the erection of 6 wind turbines etc. at Quanterness (land near), St. Ola, Orkney, 2020.
[6] L. Okkonen and O. Lehtonen, “Socio-economic impacts of community wind power projects in Northern Scotland,” Renewable Energy, vol. 85, pp. 826-833, 2016.
[7] Orkney Islands Council, “Orkney Hydrogen Strategy: The Hydrogen Islands 2019-2025,” 2020.
[8] “UNESCO World Heritage Sites,” Orkney.com, [Online]. Available: https://www.orkney.com/things/history/world-heritage-sites. [Accessed 5 February 2021].
[9] Orkney Islands Council, “Supplementary Guidance: Natural Environment,” 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.orkney.gov.uk/Files/Planning/Development-and-Marine-Planning/Adopted_PPA_and_SG/Natural_Environment_SG/Nat_Env_SG.pdf. [Accessed 10 February 2021].
[10] F. Grahame, “Has Orkney Had Enough of Wind Farms?,” 2 September 2018. [Online]. Available: https://theorkneynews.scot/2018/09/02/has-orkney-had-enough-of-wind-farms/#respond. [Accessed 20 April 2018].
[11] Ofgem, “Conditional approval of the Orkney electricity transmission project,” 16 September 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2019/09/conditional_decision_on_orkney_final_needs_case_2.pdf. [Accessed 12 April 2021].
[12] Scottish Renewables, “First Poll of Rural Scotland Shows Two Thirds Back Wind Energy,” Scottish Renewables, 18 October 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.scottishrenewables.com/news/381-first-poll-of-rural-scotland-shows-two-thirds-back-wind-energy. [Accessed 27 April 2021].
[13] Scottish & Southern Electricity Networks, “Orkney Transmission Connection and Infrastructure Project: Public Consultation Events,” 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.ssen-transmission.co.uk/media/2955/orkney-september-2018-consultation-booklet1.pdf. [Accessed 12 April 2021].