ORKNEY'S ENERGY FUTURE
ROAD TRANSPORT
COSTS
IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE
The UK Government has a strategy to transition from internal combustion engine petrol and diesel vehicles towards electric vehicles (EVs) [1]. The National Grid ESO has proposed EV uptake scenarios to the year 2050 [2]. The trend of its ‘high-level’ uptake scenario has been used to model the timeline for implementing EVs in Orkney and the timeline has been accelerated to 2030 (Figure 1) to align with Orkney’s aim to have an energy system free from fossil fuels. The number of EVs per year is determined by the percentage uptake level for each year (Table 1) up to the expected number of cars in 2030 (12,792) when all petrol and diesel cars will have been replaced.
Figure 1: Proposed implementation timeline of EVs in Orkney to 2030.
Table 1: Percentage uptake and number of EVs for each year until 2030. Based on the National Grid ESO ‘high-level’ EV projection expectations to 2050 [2].
CAPITAL COSTS
The same vehicles used for the electricity demand calculations were used to obtain average cost of one vehicle (Table 2). The capital cost of implementation includes the price of the vehicle and the home charger. Since charger type is dependent on the battery capacity of the vehicle and personal choice, the average cost of four types of chargers was used (Table 3). If EVs are bought through ReFLEX, the chargers are supplied from Zappi and the vehicles are supplied from DriveElectric.
Table 2: Cost for a range of EVs [3].
Table 3: Cost for a range of chargers [4].
The average price of an EV and the average price of a home charger gives a total capital cost for one vehicle of £33,487. This is based on the expectation that there will be 12,512 cars to replace given that there are 280 EVs currently.
The cost to an Orkney resident could be lower that the capital cost calculated due to incentives that are in place to encourage the switch to EVs. Incentives currently in place for buying an EV are:
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The Office for Low-Emission Vehicles supply a grant of £350 towards the cost of a domestic charger [5].
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The Orkney Energy Savings Trust provide a further £350 towards the cost of installation since Orkney is classed in category 8 of the Urban Rural Classification [6].
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The UK Government provide a grant of £2,500 towards the cost of an EV which has a unit price less than £35,000 [7].
OPERATING COSTS
The operating cost considers the electricity to power the vehicles only. Maintenance and other such costs were not considered. The assumption that Orkney residents will use ReFLEX to purchase their EV is relevant because ReFLEX offers a fixed electricity tariff for charging. At present this is 15.792 pence/kWh [8] and it has been assumed to remain constant in the operating cost calculation.
The calculated annual electricity demand for an average EV is approximately 1.1 MWh. This was used to calculate the resulting cost of electricity for one EV owner. The monthly costs vary due to variation in demand; however, an Orkney resident can expect to have a monthly expenditure of no more than £20 for the use of their car (Figure 2).
Based on the calculated electricity demand, the annual operating cost for one vehicle is £174.
Figure 2: Monthly average electricity cost for one vehicle, using the electricity demand values from (link page) and the ReFLEX tariff.
A comparison was made between the operating cost of the EV and a petrol and diesel car. To compare the fuel consumption, the average fuel consumption of a petrol (49.2 mpg) and diesel (55.4 mpg) car was used [9]. The average annual distance travelled (approximately 3,620 miles) was used with the assumption that there are 4.55 litres in every gallon to find the petrol and diesel fuel consumption equivalents for one car. This was found to be about 335 litres of petrol and 297 litres of diesel per 3,620 miles travelled. Using the fuel values of 126 p/litre for petrol and 128 p/litre for diesel [10], the annual fuel cost per car was calculated (Table 4). Orkney’s Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy contains a financial report that concludes EVs are of particular benefit to Orkney because of the lower fuel costs [11], validating this conclusion.
Table 4: Comparison of annual fuel costs.
Using the proposed implementation timeline, the fuel costs were calculated for each year until 2030 (Figure 3). This assumes that for every two EVs registered on Orkney, a diesel and petrol car will be replaced until 2030 when all cars are EVs. There are more petrol cars than diesel cars on Orkney so in 2029, all diesel cars are expected to be replaced. In 2030 the annual fuel cost has reduced by 50%.
Figure 3: The change in fuel costs until 2030.
The fuel savings for each year until 2030 were calculated. The ten-year fuel savings for the transition to EVs based on the average EV is approximately £11m. As the number of EVs increases and the number of diesel and petrol cars decreases, the savings increase. The savings only account for the fuel costs but the cost of maintaining an EV is lower compared to petrol and diesel cars and also there are reduced road taxes for owning a low emission vehicle [12].
REFERENCES
[1] D. Hirst, "Briefing Paper: Electric vehicles and infrastructure," House of Commons Library, 2020.
[2] National Grid ESO, "Future Energy Scenarios," July 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/173821/download. [Accessed 29 April 2021].
[3] Fleetdrive Management Ltd, "Drive Electric," 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.drive-electric.co.uk/search/?brand=&type=&sort_by=popular. [Accessed 21 April 2021].
[4] Myenergi, "Best Selling British Made EV Charger - Zappi," 2021. [Online]. Available: https://myenergi.com/product/zappi/. [Accessed 21 April 2021].
[5] Pod Point, "Office for Low Emission Vehicles Electric Vehicle Homecharge Scheme Grant," 17 March 2020. [Online]. Available: https://pod-point.com/electric-car-news/olev-grant-changes-2020. [Accessed 21 April 2021].
[6] Energy Savings Trust, "Domestic charge point funding," 2021. [Online]. Available: https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/grants-and-loans/domestic-charge-point-funding/. [Accessed 21 April 2021].
[7] UK Government, "Low-emission vehicles eligible for a plug-in grant," 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.gov.uk/plug-in-car-van-grants. [Accessed 29 April 2021].
[8] ReFLEX Orkney, "Electricity Tariff," 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.reflexorkney.co.uk/home/tariffs. [Accessed 21 April 2021].
[9] Volkswagen, "T-Cross Price and Specification Guide," 5 April 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/order-a-brochure/t-cross. [Accessed 21 April 2021].
[10] Confused.com, "Fuel Price Index," [Online]. Available: https://www.confused.com/on-the-road/petrol-prices/fuel-price-index. [Accessed 21 April 2021].
[11] Orkney Islands Council, "Orkney’s Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy," May 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.orkney.gov.uk/Files/Transport/Electric/Orkneys_Electric_Vehicle_Infrastructure_Strategy_Accessible.pdf. [Accessed 4 April 2021].
[12] DriveElectric, "Cost of electric cars compared," 19 January 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.drive-electric.co.uk/electric-vehicles-vs-petrol-diesel-hybrid/. [Accessed 29 April 2021].